Uncertainty Principle in Organizational Strategy

When the new particle collidor was commissioned in CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research www.cern.ch) Geneva last year there has been a speculation that apart from couple of nobel prizes, the future of science and physics in particular is at stake. I do recommending reading “The trouble with Physics” (http://www.thetroublewithphysics.com/) by the great theoretical physicist “Lee Smolin” (founders of Perimeter Institute of Theoretical Physics, http://www.perimeterinstitute.ca/)who has put up some serious questions on how physics is being hijacked with the obsession with “String Theory” (http://www.superstringtheory.com/). Well this (string theory) has been a fundamental drive in physics since last decade for the quest of “unification theory” that unites all four fundamental forces (electromagnetism, strong interaction, weak interaction (also known as "strong" and "weak nuclear force"), and gravitation) in one grand theory. Another interesting aspect of modern quantum gravity has been this mysterious energy called the dark energy and particle , Higgs-Boson , popularly known as God’s particle. Recent observations of supernovae are consistent with the fact that the universe is made up of 71.3% of dark energy (http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/science/mysteries_l1/dark_energy.html).

So essentially , almost three fourth of the universe composition is unknown to mankind (though I doubt even if we know remaining one-fourth fully! . Go through “What we Don’t Know” at http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/15.02/bigquestions.html?pg=3 )

Essentially our inability to know the majority of composition of universe also makes us quite inefficient on how , what , when and why a universe creates a particular element and thereafter its interactions as well. Yes we all know through elementary physics that vacuum triggers electrons, etc etc. And now physics knows leptons, dutrons, quarks etc etc. There are roughly 2.5 x 10⁸⁹ elementary particles in the observable universe

From an organizational perspective , we can consider universe as a macrocosm and organization as a microcosm , this (organization) boils down to a system reflecting the complexities of particles (human beings, economic etc ) and making it as difficult to decipher and predict as it is for the universe. By the way I strongly urge you to google “The story of Stuff” (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLBE5QAYXp8) a wonderful research which shows 99 % of what consumers buy ends up in TRASH IN 6 MONTHS in North America, others are not far behind.. And we can imagine this shelf life getting even shorter and shorter. The fundamental aspect that we ignore in our discussions is trying to see everything in a linear fashion which makes things so damn easy. If we have to understand on what will happen or more “controlled” way what should happen, we should know the “uncertainty principle in the organization”. In elementary physics most of us have read the Heisenberg uncertainty principle which stated that certain pairs of physical properties, like position and momentum, cannot both be known to arbitrary precision. That is, the more precisely one property is known, the less precisely the other can be known. It is impossible to measure simultaneously both position and velocity of a microscopic particle with any degree of accuracy or certainty.

Although philosophers of Science like Karl Popper (pls read All Life is Problem Solving

http://www.amazon.com/Life-Problem-Solving-Karl-Popper/dp/0415174864 have questioned uncertainty , but I always have had my faith in probabilistic theories. In Fact its high time that we make Probability , Logic and Epistemology (theory of knowledge It addresses the questions: What is knowledge? How is knowledge acquired? What do people know? How do we know what we know? Why do we know what we know?) as essential subjects in Management & Engineering in the curriculum..

So if through principles of equivalence I deduce position ( from Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle) Organizational Position (positioning a firm, what should it sell , how much etc, position can be a point of reference in a cost-quality-competition-map for an organization) and Momentum where and how fast should the organization head towards ? (what should it become and how should it become based on its size and financials) in terms of an organization, there would be a fair amount of uncertainty in the two.

Strategists, thinkers, and thought leaders all dwell on this for loads of time. There are interactions all along the strategy formulation path with unaccounted factors.

So what should Strategists do ? May be assemble a probability of options keeping in mind principles of uncertainty , by first recognizing that lots of things around are uncertain (not just the mathematical , analytical way only) but with a model which is dynamic and has subjective considerations as well, not just objective. The strategy formulation is an art many a time we have a conceptual model of the end painting when we start , but end product can turn out to be varied, different or completely something else than we imagined.

Here again I reemphasize that our models of thinking are growing static day by day. I am often intrigued by the Philosophy of Fallibilism ( philosophical doctrine) that all claims of knowledge could, in principle, be mistaken. Some fallibilists go further, arguing that absolute certainty about knowledge is impossible. (Read “Knowing and the Known” is a 1949 book by John Dewey who was a great Fallibilist and Arthur Bentley. A full version of the book in pdf is available from the American Institute for Economic Research).

We need to reinvent our ways of thinking as said in one of the Shiva Sutras “ Gyanam Bandah” , ultimately knowledge itself becomes a limitation.

It’s the free spirit ultimately